The very best in Spain: Ronald Araujo's real value to Liverpool explained

Liverpool are on the brink of signing Ronald Araujo from Barcelona. We've had a look at his real value - and why the Reds want him.

Liverpool will imminently announce the signing of Ronald Araujo from Barcelona on a one-year loan deal with an option to buy. That’s according to Fabrizio Romano, who was among those breaking the news on Friday night.

The Reds will be able to pay €55m to make it all permanent next July, while they’ll also cover his wages in full for the duration of the loan.

On the face of it, you can see why Liverpool made this move. They needed a centre-back in his prime years - someone who can bridge the gap between Virgil van Dijk (35), Jeremy Jacquet (21) and Giovanni Leoni (19) but perhaps offer a bit more reliability than Joe Gomez.

On top of that, Araujo can play right-back, too, covering the injured Conor Bradley. So the logic here does make sense.

Questions about just how reliable Araujo is are absolutely there to be asked, though. He played 1062 minutes in La Liga last season, which is roughly 12 full matches. That number was as low as 759 for the season before and the Uruguayan has only once played in more than 25 league matches across a campaign (30).

So why is Araujo the pick?

Ronald Araujo's Value Add

Our model assesses a player's Value Add across a season, essentially in points. This takes both attacking and defensive value, which can be measured as the number of goals you'd say he helped contribute and the effect he brought to the defence.

Think of it as a way of judging the point value a player brings, all things considered. With that in mind, we do feel Araujo was the most valuable centre-back in Spain last season per 90 minutes.

Now, that's the key factor here. Araujo's limited game-time means he was nowhere near the most valuable centre-back in La Liga, simply because he didn't play enough. If you're buying a player, you want their value to be the highest total at the end of a campaign, rather than the essentially theoretical value of "if they'd played more".

On the flip side, Liverpool will be backing themselves to get more game time out of Araujo and thus more value.

Perhaps a good example of that is the values across the top-five European leagues. Araujo again boasts one of the best values per 90 across centre-backs but if far, far down the line when it comes to the actual value brought across the season.

One name that will stick out if Virgil van Dijk, who despite a relatively low per-90 score, was the third-most valuable centre-back in Europe last season in our model.

We can leave it up to you exactly how highly you wish to hold defending in Serie A vs the Premier League (Italy's top flight tends to score higher than most with individual value) but the point here is that overall seasonal value is what you're really chasing.

With Araujo, it's all potential and what he might be able to give if you can keep him on the pitch. Plainly, Liverpool feel he can be a more reliable option than he was in Spain.

Though, it's also worth considering where that value comes from. We have Araujo as an attacking centre-back, first and foremost, and it's his numbers there that drove his value last season.

We have him as the outright best attacking centre-back in Spain last season, again per 90 minutes. His lack of playing time hurt his numbers significantly, but no other centre-back matches his per 90 in the last three La Liga seasons.

And so Araujo is one to watch in possession, rather than a defensive force. At the same time, there is more value to be gained in attack than defence for any player - Araujo just takes that to a relative extreme.

The below graph, showing the number of successful duels against the percentage of duels won, demonstrates that Araujo is relatively middle of the pack for centre-backs across Europe's top five leagues. He's above average in both categories, without being in the elite bracket for either.

That's in contrast to Virgil van Dijk, for instance, who boasts the best success-rate in Europe.

So what does make him standout? Well, shooting and passing, really. Araujo was one of three players across Europe's top five leagues to be in the top 10 per cent for shots and successful passes.

And so that's where Liverpool feel they're getting value here. He's an attacking asset - one who is a competent defender without being spectacular, but who could end up making a decisive difference on the ball.

Is that going to be worth €55m? Time will tell.